Developing the Situation

Security and intelligence professionals often reference the concept of developing the situation, a principle popularized, among others, by former Delta Force commander Pete Blaber in his book "The Mission, The Men, And Me". This concept is a good framework for enhancing your situational awareness in a low visibility context. It is a bias toward action and testing over static, passive analysis. You should never be content with merely observing an anomaly; you must perform, if the situation is not critically threatening, a small, non-committal action to force the situation to reveal its true nature.

Standard situational awareness often stops at the observation phase: you see something that doesn't fit the baseline, and you flag it mentally. Developing the situation requires you to take that mental flag and turn it into a physical test, or at least become more active to see how it develops. You have spotted an anomaly, perhaps a car idling too long or an individual who appears to be watching a doorway. Your action does not need to be confrontational; it simply needs to be enough to elicit a response from the subject of your attention.

For example, if you suspect you are being followed, you do not immediately run or turn around and stare. Instead, you gently introduce a change to the baseline you are presenting. This could be performing a gentle, natural accidental double back maneuver or executing the stair-ttep turn through a few side streets. If the anomaly is legitimate, your action will force the follower to break cover by having to rush, change their direction, or reveal an unnecessary level of interest in your movement. If the anomaly is harmless, your action will have no effect on them.

Developing the situation is the action phase that forces a potential threat to confirm its intent. Your deliberate, small action forces the subject to show its true colors.

• If the situation develops hostile intent: The person being tested will react aggressively, show panic, or mirror your movements exactly. This confirms the anomaly is a threat, immediately justifying the need to switch to your PACE contingency plan.
• If the situation dissolves: The person or vehicle will fail to follow you, move on to a different activity, or show confusion at your sudden change of route. This confirms the anomaly was either benign or not dedicated enough to pose a risk to your low profile.

Developing the situation maintains your low signature because your test actions are designed to look natural to the casual observer. It is a proactive, disciplined method for achieving certainty, ensuring you are neither passively targeted nor wasting time reacting to simple urban oddities. This approach emphasizes that awareness is not a static state; it is an ongoing cycle of observation, testing, and assessment. Once you have a clear reading of the situation's direction, you can build your next move, ensuring your movement remains purposeful and your safety is proactively secured.